# Structural Balance Robustness: Alternative Output Gap Measures

Tests whether the structural Bohn reversal (β = -0.011, p = 0.005) is robust
to alternative cyclical adjustment methods.

| Dependent Variable | Gap Measure | Bohn β | SE | p-value | N | Countries | R² |
|:--|:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| Primary Balance (IMF gap) | IMF WEO | 0.0078 | 0.0066 | 0.2388 | 846 | 27 | 0.191 |
| Structural Balance (IMF gap) | IMF WEO | -0.0091* | 0.0055 | 0.0999 | 834 | 27 | 0.123 |
| Primary Balance (Hamilton) | Hamilton (2018) | 0.0061** | 0.0029 | 0.0353 | 4,600 | 181 | 0.018 |
| Structural Balance (Hamilton) | Hamilton (2018) | -0.0034 | 0.0034 | 0.3240 | 2,057 | 83 | 0.132 |
| Primary Balance (growth+infl) | Growth + Inflation | 0.0065** | 0.0026 | 0.0112 | 5,102 | 185 | -0.000 |
| Structural Balance (growth+infl) | Growth + Inflation | -0.0032 | 0.0033 | 0.3428 | 2,267 | 84 | 0.009 |
| Primary Balance (HP gap) | HP filter (λ=6.25) | 0.0054** | 0.0027 | 0.0427 | 5,061 | 181 | 0.044 |
| Structural Balance (HP gap) | HP filter (λ=6.25) | -0.0052* | 0.0030 | 0.0842 | 2,251 | 83 | 0.121 |

## Interpretation

- Of 4 structural balance specifications, 4 have negative Bohn β and 0 are significant at 5%.
- The structural reversal is **robust** to alternative gap measures.

**Note**: PanelGLS includes entity (country) fixed effects via within-transformation.
The within-R² reported captures variation explained after demeaning.